The Fire Service Emergency Cover toolkit models the impact of fire service emergency response times on the rate of death of people involved in fires and a range of non-fire “special services”. One part of this modelling uses statistical models of the relationship between the time taken by fire service appliances to reach the scene of an incident and the probability that casualties will be fatally injured. These statistical models also assess the impact of the response time of second, and for some categories of incidents, third and fourth fire service vehicles. The IRS offered two and a half years of data (IRS data was supplied for 31/3/ 2009 to 30/09/2011) at the time of this study and a fuller record per incident. The IRS data was used to:
- Assess which of the special service categories in FSEC should be retained, redefined or deleted and aligning FSEC special services categories to those in IRS;
- Produce a new set of response time fatality rate relationships, based on more reliable IRS data, including, where appropriate, the response times of the first and subsequent appliances.
As part of this the step functions used to model response times were replaced with regression formula to better model small changes in response times. This will achieve more reliable and valid results, especially for Road Traffic Collisions and special services which account for a large proportion of life risk incidents attended by the fire service.
FSEC modelling of time periods was also amended to enable fuller modelling of the effect of changing shift and crewing systems.
This presentation explained the development of the new modelling routines, how they help improve the validity of FSEC results and how FSEC users may wish to amend their operation of FSEC.
The event was attended by 27 fire and rescue services.
You can download and view the presentation here: FSEC 2013 Presentation