DSO 6.1, 6.2 and PSA 3 fire trajectories to March 2012: Updated trajectories October 2009
This project provided an update of the potential trends in the Departmental Strategic Objectives 6.1 (primary fires) and 6.2 (deliberate fires), and the PSA 3 fire measures for England for 2009–10, 2010–11 and 2011–2012.
The aim was to:
project trends to 2011–12;
indicate uncertainties in these trends;
identify factors that may influence these trends, so Communities and Local Government can monitor underlying factors and possibly review policy options to influence trends.
The previous project used reported fire data to 2006–07 and made projections for 2007–08 to 2010–11.
This update included the following new data:
fire data for 2007–08 and 2008–09;
data for the following external factors for 2007 to 2009:
– summer temperature
– abandoned cars
– male and female adult smokers
– arson (as reported by the Home Office using police reports)
– child poverty
– population levels
– lone parent
– killed or seriously injured in road traffic collisions
– scrap metal price
The report provides the new potential trends and highlights changes from the previous report and ongoing uncertainties.