This project provided an update of the potential trends in the Departmental Strategic Objectives 6.1 (primary fires) and 6.2 (deliberate fires), and the PSA 3 fire measures for England for 2009–10, 2010–11 and 2011–2012.

The aim was to:

The previous project used reported fire data to 2006–07 and made projections for 2007–08 to 2010–11.

This update included the following new data:

– summer temperature
– abandoned cars
– male and female adult smokers
– arson (as reported by the Home Office using police reports)
– child poverty
– population levels
– lone parent
– killed or seriously injured in road traffic collisions
– scrap metal price
– unemployment.

The report provides the new potential trends and highlights changes from the previous report and ongoing uncertainties.


You can view the report here.